Prediksi Aktivitas Tanpa Masker Dengan Kombinasi Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Dan Fuzzy time series

Klasifikasi Data Cardiotocography Dengan Integrasi Metode Neural Network Dan Particle Swarm Optimization

Backpropagation (BP) adalah sebuah metode yang digunakan dalam training Neural Network (NN) untuk menentukan parameter bobot yang sesuai. Proses penentuan parameter bobot dengan menggunakan metode backpropagation sangat dipengaruhi oleh pemilihan nilai learning rate (LR)-nya. Penggunaan nilai learning rate yang kurang optimal berdampak pada waktu komputasi yang lama atau akurasi klasifikasi yan...

Exponential smoothing for irregular time series

The paper deals with extensions of exponential smoothing type methods for univariate time series with irregular observations. An alternative method to Wright’s modification of simple exponential smoothing based on the corresponding ARIMA process is suggested. Exponential smoothing of order m for irregular data is derived. A similar method using a DLS (discounted least squares) estimation of pol...

Robust exponential smoothing of multivariate time series

Multivariate time series may contain outliers of different types. In the presence of such outliers, applying standard multivariate time series techniques becomes unreliable. A robust version of multivariate exponential smoothing is proposed. The method is affine equivariant, and involves the selection of a smoothing parameter matrix by minimizing a robust loss function. It is shown that the rob...

Exponential smoothing for time series with outliers

Recursive time series methods are very popular due to their numerical simplicity. Their theoretical background is usually based on Kalman filtering in state space models (mostly in dynamic linear systems). However, in time series practice one must face frequently to outlying values (outliers), which require applying special methods of robust statistics. In the paper a simple robustification of ...

A Comparison Between Time Series, Exponential Smoothing, and Neural Network Methods To Forecast GDP of Iran